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Economy and Finance

Economic forecast for Slovenia

The latest macroeconomic forecast for Slovenia. 

Indicators 2023 2024 2025
GDP growth (%. yoy) 1.3 1.9 2.7
Inflation (%. yoy) 7.2 2.9 2.0

Overall, Slovenia’s real GDP is estimated to have expanded by 1.3% in 2023, as expected in autumn. Over the first three quarters of the year, private consumption growth was modest while construction investment growth proved very strong. Machinery and equipment investments, on the other hand, decreased. Imports declined significantly faster than exports, leading to a positive contribution from net exports. Employment has remained strong through the year.

GDP is forecast to expand by 1.9% in 2024 and by 2.7% in 2025, broadly unchanged compared to the Autumn Forecast. Weak sentiment and low exports demand are expected to limit growth in the beginning of 2024. With continued strong investment, also supported by the RRP, and recovery of demand in exports markets, growth is projected to improve over the forecast horizon. Private and public consumption are expected to pick up thanks to the continued strong labour market performance and increasing wages. In 2025, private consumption is set to grow faster than in 2024. Net exports are forecast to be broadly neutral, while the volume in trade is projected to grow significantly faster than in 2024.

HICP inflation decreased markedly over 2023, especially in energy. In the final quarter of the year, also food price inflation started to decelerate. Overall, inflation averaged 7.2% in 2023. Headline inflation is projected to decrease to 2.9% in 2024, on the back of moderating energy prices and relatively weak demand. In 2025, despite continued wage pressures, HICP inflation is forecast to fall further to 2.0%. For both years, this is a downwards revision compared to autumn. Similarly, inflation excluding energy and food is projected to be on a downward trend over the forecast horizon.