Joint OGWG - ECFIN - JRC Conference on the "Assessment of Output Gaps and Potential Output in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath"

The EU economy has experienced a recession in 2020 and (parts of) 2021 of unprecedented depth, outside of war times, due to the coronavirus pandemic.

This Conference was organised to explore the implications of the Covid induced recession for the underlying growth potential of the EU’s economies, as well as the knock-on implications for output gaps.

The first day of the Conference concentrated on the assessment of output gaps and potential output during COVID-19 - also covering questions related to the policy implications.

The second day was dedicated to an evaluation of the possible long-term effects of the pandemic and to exploring alternative methodologies currently discussed in the academic literature and the policy debate.

The main goal of the Conference was to make a first attempt at disentangling the complex mix of supply, demand, uncertainty and liquidity shocks, which the virus has provoked.

Documents

First Keynote Speech

Session 1: Potential Output and Output Gap Estimation against the background of the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock: Methodologies used by the IMF, the OECD, the European Commission & the ECB

Session 2: Post COVID and the long-term impact of COVID on potential output : Hysteresis, Scarring and Reallocation processes

Session 3: The truth lies in the data – new data developments in view of estimating potential output

Session 4: Output gaps and inflation – re-examining the relationship

Second Keynote Speech

Session 5: Output Gap Calculation Methodologies: possible new approaches

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