Research Conference: Understanding the impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility

1. 28 Jan 2026, 15:00 - 17:00 (CET)

   Methodological exchange: assessing the impact of the RRF using firm level and administrative data

   • What can 240 000 new credit transactions tell us about the impact of NGEU by Alvaro Ortiz (BBVA research), Tomasa Rodrigo (BBVA research), David Sarasa (BBVA research) and Sirena Vazquez (BBVA research)
   • Performance-Based Programs and Efficiency in Public Investment: Some Evidence from Italy’s national Recovery and Resilience Plan by Bucci V., Bugiaretti L., Gatteschi Silvia, and Rotondo F. (Cassa Depositi e Prestiti)    
   • What does it take to organize development projects? Spatial and temporal effects in Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan by Lorenzo Mascioli (Sciences Po) and Lauren Leek (University of Reading) 

   Chair: Dino Pinelli, Adviser on research coordination and research events, DG ECFIN, European Commission 

2. 29 Jan 2026, 08:00 - 09:00 (CET)

   Welcome coffee
3. 09:00 - 09:05 (CET)

   Opening speech by Maarten Verwey, Director General, DG ECFIN, European Commission
4. 09:05 - 09:15 (CET)

   Keynote Speech by Valdis Dombrovskis, Commissioner for Economy and Productivity; Implementation and Simplification.
5. 09:15 - 10:30 (CET)

   High-level policy panel discussion “The final year of the RRF: taking stock of the impacts so far”

   • Céline Gauer,  Director-General, SG REFORM, European Commission
   • Alfred Kammer, Director of the European Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
   • Cinzia Alcidi, Senior Research Fellow and Head of the Economic Policy and Jobs & Skills Units, Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
   • Johannes Lindner, Head of Division, European Central Bank (ECB)
   • Michael Arghyrou, Head of the Economics Office of the Prime Minister of the Hellenic Republic

   Chair: Paola Tamma, EU Correspondent, Financial Times (FT) 

6. 10:30 - 11:00 (CET)

   Coffee break
7. 11:00 - 12:00 (CET)

   Assessing the EU’s first performance-based instrument: exploring innovative approaches

   An overview of the European Commission’s work to assess the impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility 

   • The economic impact of RRF-funded governance reforms, by Gabor Katay, Economist, DG ECFIN (European Commission)
   • The RRF contribution to the reduction of EU GHG emissions, by Costanza Caprini, Economic Analyst, DG ECFIN (European Commission) and Maximilian Studtrucker, Policy Officer, DG ECFIN (European Commission)
   • Economic impacts of the RRF: new insights at macro, sectoral and country levels, by Valeria Ferreira, Economic Analyst, Joint Research Centre (JRC, European Commission) and Anne Michels, Economic analyst, DG ECFIN (European Commission)

   Chair: Géraldine Mahieu, Director - Investment, growth and structural reforms, DG ECFIN (European Commission)

8. 12:00 - 13:00 (CET)

   Research session 1: The macroeconomic impact of the RRF

   • Fiscal Simulus and Productivity: simulating the NGEU program with an endogenous growth model by Ruben Dominguez-Diaz, Samuel Hurtado and Carolina Menendez, Banco de España
   • How can we make the next Next Generation EU perform even better?  By Caroline Bozou (Sorbonne Economics Center (CES), University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) and Jérôme Creel (Sciences-Po/OFCE & ESCP Business School) 

    Chair: Philipp Pfeiffer, Deputy Head of Unit, DG ECFIN (European Commission)

9. 13:00 - 14:15 (CET)

   Lunch
10. 14:15 - 15:30 (CET)

    Research session 2: Governance and Reforms – what is the impact of the funding model of the RRF?

    • Puzzling over reform ambition: capacity, governance, and commitment in national recovery and resilience plansby Edgars Eihmanis (University of Tartu)
    • Negotiated and Negotiable? Contractual Governance and the Flexibility of the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility by Joan Miro (Universitat Pompeo Fabra) and Ana Mar Fernandez Pasarin (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)
    • The EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility as a “Transition Stabiliser”; analysing government turnover in Italy, the Netherlands and Slovakia by David Bokhorst (Socio-Economic Council of the Netherlands and EUI Florence) and Andrea Capati (Luiss Guido Carli University and European University Institute)

    Chair: Prof. Jonathan Zeitlin, University of Amsterdam

11. 15:30 - 16:00 (CET)

    Coffee break
12. 16:00 - 17:15 (CET)

    Research session 3: Employment, green and energy impacts of the RRF

    • The employment activated by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan and its characteristics by Gaetano Basso, Luigi Guiso, Matteo Paradisi, Andrea Petrella (Bank of Italy)  
    • Green Tags, Bigger Cheques, and Faster Tracks: Micro-Evidence from the Recovery and Resilience Facility by Muhammad Muddasir (ISAG—European Business School, Porto), Ana Pinto Borges (ISAG—European Business School, Porto) and Elvira Vieira (ISAG—European Business School, Porto)
    • The efficiency of NextGenerationEU: Evidence from solar energy subsidies in Italy using satellite imagery by Jean-Charles Bricongne (Banque de France), Maximilian Freier (European Central Bank), Christian Huber (European Central Bank), Benjamin Lietti (Paris-Saclay University) 

    Chair: Prof. Sonja Bekker, Utrecht University

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14. 17:15 - 17:30 (CET)

    Closing remarks by Raffaele Fitto, Executive Vice-President for Cohesion and Reforms

    Chair: Géraldine Mahieu, Director - Investment, growth and structural reforms, DG ECFIN (European Commission)

Practical information