The EU and its competitors on the US market
The average tariff faced by a country or region on its exported goods is measured by the Effective Tariff Rate (ETR). For each country or region, ETRs are calculated as the tariff rates imposed on each exported good, weighted by that good's share in total merchandise exports to the US. The trade weights are based on goods export data from 2024 and do not account for potential changes to trade dynamics in response to the tariff hikes, in either volume or price terms.
| Graph 1: ETR on major US trading partners on 1 November 2025 | Graph 2: Share of US goods imports by major US trading partners, 2024 |
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Countries and regions are ranked by their share in total US goods imports in 2024. Source: European Commission, IMF, WTO. | Source: IMF, WTO. |
Based on the tariffs implemented or credibly announced by the US administration at the cut-off date of this forecast, Graph 1 shows that among major US trading partners, the EU faces the fourth lowest effective tariff rate, after Canada, Mexico and the United Kingdom. However, the EU benefits from lower trade-weighted average tariff rates on exports to the US than all remaining countries shown on the Graph. Importantly, some of these countries compound high ETRs on exports to the US with a relatively high share in US goods imports (see Graph 2). Namely, China faces an ETR of 36% and the ASEAN countries 19%, while accounting for around 13% and 11% of total US goods imports, respectively. These countries could potentially shift a large amount of their goods exports away from the US to other regions, including the EU.
Average tariff rates vary across Member States
The ETRs faced by EU Member States vary depending on their export structure. Graph 3 shows the ETRs faced by each Member State at the cut-off date of the forecast. Member States’ ETRs range from 3.2% for Ireland to 29.5% for Luxembourg. Countries whose main exports are steel, aluminium, iron, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, and machinery face the highest ETRs, while countries mostly exporting goods that are currently exempted from US tariffs, such as aircrafts and pharmaceuticals, are at the lower end of the ETR ranking.
| Graph 3: ETR for EU Member States, on 3 May 2025 (Spring Forecast) and 31 October 2025 (Autumn Forecast) |
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| The Effective Tariff Rates have been computed at the HS8 level using Eurostat's Comext Database trade data for the year 2024. |
Graph 4 introduces a measure of the countries’ actual exposure to the US tariffs, calculated by multiplying a country’s ETR by the share in GDP of its goods exports destined for the US. On average, US-bound exports of the EU made up around 3% of EU GDP in 2024. Combining this with an ETR of roughly 10% imposed by the US on EU-produced goods (assuming the composition of these trade flows stay roughly similar to 2024), results in a vulnerability indicator of 0.3% for the EU as a whole. This average hides significant variation across Member States, with the most exposed economies facing a high effective tariff rate and relying heavily on exports to the US.
| Graph 4: Exposure to US tariffs |
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Exposure to US tariffs is computed as Vulnerability = Effective tariff rate x (Total value of goods exports to the United States/Gross Domestic Product). Source: Comext database (Eurostat), European Commission. |
Namely, countries such as Luxembourg, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Denmark have high ETRs but because exports to the US make up a small share of their economy, their exposure to US tariffs is relatively low. Conversely, Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands have relatively low ETRs, but because exports to the United States represent a sizeable part of their economies, they experience a greater exposure to US tariffs. Germany, Slovakia, Austria, Italy and Sweden are the most exposed, as they not only face high ETRs, but their economies depend heavily on exports to the US. These countries export high amounts of highly taxed products such as steel, aluminium, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, chemical products and machinery. Malta, Croatia, Estonia, Portugal and France are less exposed, as they have both low ETRs and limited exports to the US.