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An Assessment of the Euro Area Fiscal Stance in 2025 and 2026, Considering the Flexibility for Higher Defence Spending

Details

Identification
Economic Brief 085
Publication date
9 July 2025
Authors
Alessandra Cepparulo | Vito Ernesto Reitano | Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs

Description

This Economic Brief analyses the euro area fiscal stance over the period 2024-2026, i.e. the impulse that national budgets and the EU budget have been providing to the euro area economy since the pandemic.

Highlights

  • The fiscal stance is measured by Commission services as the net expenditure developments relative to medium-term potential output growth.
  • Based on the latest forecast, the euro area fiscal stance  turned contractionary in 2024.
  • Compliance with the recommended net expenditure paths would entail a slightly contractionary fiscal stance for the euro area in 2025 and 2026. However, the flexibility granted via the national escape clause (NEC) for higher defence spending is expected to lead to a less restrictive fiscal stance.

Information and identifiers

Economic Brief 085. July 2025. Brussels. PDF 20 pp. Tab. Graph. Bibliogr. Free.

KC-01-25-037-EN-N (online) 
ISBN 978-92-68-12541-0 (online) 
ISSN 2443-8030 (online)
doi:10.2765/921961 (online)

JEL classification: E61, E62, H50.
 

Disclaimer

European Economy Economic Briefs are written by the staff of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs to inform discussion on economic policy and to stimulate debate. The views expressed in this document are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official views of the European Commission.

An Assessment of the Euro Area Fiscal Stance in 2025 and 2026, Considering the Flexibility for Higher Defence Spending

Files

  • 13 JULY 2025
An Assessment of the Euro Area Fiscal Stance in 2025 and 2026, Considering the Flexibility for Higher Defence Spending