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  • Scientific paper

Market Reactions to European Commission Policy Announcements: A Model Intervention Analysis

Details

Identification
Discussion Paper 235
Publication date
1 December 2025
Authors
Pierre-Antoine Laprat | Hugo Ségard | Christophe Hulin | Christelle Sapata | Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs

Description

This paper analyses the effect of Commission announcements (Excessive Deficit Procedure announcements, Post Programme Surveillance Reports and Adjustment Programmes announcements) on Member States' sovereign debt yield.

Highlights:

  • We measure the direct and indirect effect of Commission announcements on Member States' sovereign bond yields and spreads.
  • Excessive Deficit Procedure announcements and Post Program Surveillance reports both have a negligible effect on government bond yields and spreads.
  • Adjustment Programme announcements have a significant decreasing effect on yields and spreads, both on the targeted country and on other Member States.

Information and identifiers

Discussion Paper 235. December 2025. Brussels. PDF. 50pp. Tab. Graph. Bibliogr. Free.

KC-01-25-055-EN-N (online)

ISBN 978-92-68-31827-0 (online)  

ISSN 2443-8022 (online)

doi:10.2765/8255831 (online) 

JEL classification: E44, E60, G15, G28, C33.

Disclaimer

European Economy Discussion Papers are written by the staff of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them, to inform discussion on economic policy and to stimulate debate. The views expressed in this document are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official views of the European Commission. 

Market Reactions to European Commission Policy Announcements: A Model Intervention Analysis

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  • 1 DECEMBER 2025
Market Reactions to European Commission Policy Announcements: A Model Intervention Analysis