Details
- Identification
- Discussion Paper 252
- Publication date
- 1 July 2026
- Authors
- Milda Valentinaite | Ben Shepherd | Mantas Valužis | Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
- Countries
- Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania
Description
This paper uses a Ricardian structural-gravity trade model to estimate sectoral “revealed competitiveness” in the Baltics over 2010–2022, finding rapid but incomplete catch-up with Nordic EU productivity levels, strongest in Lithuania, more concentrated in Estonia, and weakest/most uneven in Latvia.
Highlights
- We estimate sectoral “revealed competitiveness” in the Baltic countries over 2010–2022.
- We use a Ricardian structural-gravity trade model based on observed trade and production patterns.
- We cover 18 sectors in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, benchmarked against three Nordic EU comparators.
- We find rapid but incomplete Baltic catch-up, especially in manufacturing.
- Lithuania shows the broadest convergence, Estonia more concentrated gains, and Latvia the most uneven performance.
- Services results should be interpreted cautiously due to data-quality limitations.
Information and identifiers
Discussion Paper 252. July 2026. Brussels. PDF. 44pp. Tab. Graph. Bibliogr. Free.
KC-01-26-052-EN-N (online)
ISBN 978-92-68-40199-6 (online)
ISSN 2443-8022 (online)
doi:10.2765/9475327 (online)
JEL classification: F14; O47.
Disclaimer
European Economy Discussion Papers are written by the staff of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them, to inform discussion on economic policy and to stimulate debate. The views expressed in this document are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official views of the European Commission.
