Economic growth in Poland is set to remain strong in 2026, at 3.5%, supported by higher EU-funded investments, but is projected to slow in 2027 to 2.8%. Inflation is forecast to moderate to 2.9% in 2026 and rise to 3.7% in 2027. Trade is set to contribute negatively to growth over the forecast horizon. Following a projected increase in the general government deficit in 2025 to 6.8% of GDP, fiscal consolidation is expected to advance somewhat in 2026, with the deficit estimated at 6.3% of GDP, and 2027, with the deficit forecast to further decrease to 6.1% of GDP. Nevertheless, the debt-to-GDP ratio is set to increase over the forecast horizon, from 55.1% of GDP in 2024 to 69.2% of GDP in 2027.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Inflation (%, yoy) | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.7 |
| Unemployment (%) | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| General government balance (% of GDP) | -6.8 | -6.3 | -6.1 |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 59.5 | 64.9 | 69.2 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.8 |
Growth to remain strong in 2026 but moderate in 2027
In 2025, real GDP is set to increase by 3.2%, broadly in line with the Spring Forecast. Private consumption is projected to be the key driver of growth as real disposable income continues to rise robustly. Investment growth is set to pick up mainly due to higher public investment. The negative contribution from net exports registered already in 2024 is expected to narrow.
In 2026, economic growth is projected to accelerate and reach 3.5%, higher than in the Spring projection. The contribution from private consumption is set to remain robust but weaker than in the previous year as growth of disposable income slows. The positive contribution from investment is forecast to increase significantly reflecting higher absorption of EU funds, especially in the final year of the RRF, and offsetting the lower growth in private consumption. The negative contribution from net exports is projected to shrink further as exports increase.
Economic growth is set to decrease to 2.8% in 2027. Private consumption is projected to remain a key driver of growth, but less than in the previous years. Growth in investment and public consumption is set to slow, largely reflecting a drop in absorption of EU funds. The contribution from net trade is set to be slightly negative.
Labour market stable
Employment is projected to remain broadly stable over the forecast horizon, with a tight labour market and unemployment remaining around 3%. Growth in nominal compensation per employee is projected to slow gradually from 8.6% in 2025 to 6% in 2027.
Inflation easing
HICP inflation is set to reach 3.4% in 2025, lower than forecast in spring. In 2026, headline inflation is set to moderate further and reach 2.9% due to slower growth in energy and non-energy industrial goods prices. In 2027, inflation is forecast to increase to 3.7%, as the entry into operation of ETS2, if not delayed, is going to lift energy prices.
Delayed fiscal consolidation
In 2025, the general government deficit is expected to increase to 6.8% of GDP from 6.5% of GDP in 2024. This increase is due to higher public spending driven by increased social benefits (including new Active Parent and Widow Pension programmes), elevated costs of servicing the public debt, increased salaries in the public sector and higher spending on healthcare. The level of public investment is also set to increase, notably due to high defence investments.
In 2026, the deficit is projected to decrease to 6.3% of GDP, as the government implements new discretionary revenue-increasing measures to support fiscal consolidation. These include a temporary increase in the corporate income tax on banks, hikes in excise duties and VAT on certain beverages, and the introduction of a mandatory electronic invoicing system. Total nationally financed expenditure is estimated to decline slightly as a share of GDP on the back of strong nominal growth.
In 2027, the deficit is forecast to decrease to 6.1% of GDP. The effects of the adopted revenue measures are set to lead to a further increase of national-budget revenue as a share in GDP.
The fiscal stance is projected to remain expansionary in 2025 and 2026, supported by higher EU-budget-financed expenditure. It is set to turn contractionary in 2027 due to the end of the RRF, despite increasing nationally financed investments in defence.
The public debt-to-GDP ratio is set to increase steadily, from 55.1% in 2024 to 69.2% in 2027, mainly driven by high deficits and debt-increasing stock-flow adjustments related to defence investments.
Entry into force of some of the government’s revenue measures is pending, posing a downside risk to the fiscal forecast for 2026 and 2027. Conversely, a series of measures planned to improve tax compliance could offer an upside risk to the fiscal forecast.