Winter 2023 Economic Forecast: EU Economy set to avoid recession, but headwinds persist
This Winter interim Forecast lifts the outlook for growth and slightly lowers the inflation projections. Growth for 2022 is now estimated at 3.5% in both the EU and the euro area. GDP is projected to expand by 0.8% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024 (0.9% and 1.5% in the euro area).
Autumn 2022 Economic Forecast: The EU economy at a turning point
Though rapidly declining throughout the year, average inflation is projected to remain high, at 7.0% in the EU and 6.1% in the euro area – again a very large revision with respect to the 4.6% and 4.0% expected respectively for the EU and the euro area only a few months ago.
Summer 2022 Economic Forecast: Russia’s war worsens the outlook
Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine continues to send shockwaves through the global economy. To navigate these troubled waters, Europe must show leadership, with three words defining our policies: solidarity, sustainabilty and security.
Spring 2022 Economic Forecast: Russian invasion tests EU economic resilience
The outlook for the EU economy before the outbreak of the war was for a prolonged and robust expansion. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has posed new challenges, just as the Union had recovered from the economic impacts of the pandemic.
Winter 2022 Economic Forecast: Growth expected to regain traction after winter slowdown
The EU economy entered the new year on a weaker note than previously projected.
Autumn 2021 Economic Forecast: From recovery to expansion, amid headwinds
The Autumn 2021 Economic Forecast projects that, despite mounting headwinds, the EU economy is projected to keep expanding over the forecast horizon.
Summer 2021 Economic Forecast: Reopening fuels recovery
The European economy is forecast to rebound faster than previously expected, as activity in the first quarter of the year exceeded expectations...
Spring 2021 Economic Forecast: Rolling up sleeves
The Spring 2021 Economic Forecast projects that growth rates will continue to vary across the EU, but all Member States should see their economies return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022.
Winter 2021 Economic Forecast: A challenging winter, but light at the end of the tunnel
Europe remains in the grip of the coronavirus pandemic.
Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast
Economic activity in Europe suffered a severe shock in the first half of the year and rebounded strongly in the third quarter as containment measures...
Summer 2020 Economic Forecast: A deeper recession with wider divergences
The EU economy will experience a deep recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, despite the swift and comprehensive policy response...
Spring 2020 Economic Forecast: A deep and uneven recession, an uncertain recovery
The coronavirus pandemic represents a major shock for the global and EU economies, with very severe socio-economic consequences.
Winter 2020 Economic Forecast: Offsetting forces confirm subdued growth
The Winter 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the European economy is set to continue on a path of steady, moderate growth.
Autumn 2019 Economic Forecast: A challenging road ahead
The European economy is now in its seventh consecutive year of growth and is forecast to continue expanding in 2020 and 2021.
Summer 2019 Economic Forecast: Growth clouded by external factors
The forecast for euro area GDP growth in 2019 remains unchanged at 1.2%, while the forecast for 2020 has been lowered slightly to 1.4% following the more moderate pace expected in the rest of this year (spring forecast: 1.5%).
Spring 2019 Economic Forecast: Growth continues at a more moderate pace
The European economy is forecast to continue expanding for the seventh year in a row in 2019, with real GDP expected to grow in all EU Member States.
Winter 2019 Economic Forecast: growth moderates amid global uncertainties
The European economy is expected to grow for the seventh year in a row in 2019, with expansion forecast in every Member State.
Autumn 2018 Economic Forecast: sustained but less dynamic growth amid high uncertainty
Growth in the euro area is forecast to ease from a 10-year high of 2.4% in 2017 to 2.1% in 2018 before moderating further to 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020.
Summer 2018 Interim Economic Forecast: Resilient growth amid increased uncertainty
Growth is set to remain strong in 2018 and 2019, at 2.1% this year and 2% next year inboth the EU and the euro area.
Spring 2018 Economic Forecast: Expansion to continue, amid new risks
Growth rates for the EU and the euro area beat expectations in 2017 to reach a 10-year high at 2.4%.
Winter 2018 Economic Forecast
Growth rates for the euro area and the EU beat expectations last year as the transition from economic recovery to expansion continues. The euro area and EU economies are both estimated to have grown by 2.4% in 2017, the fastest pace in a decade.
Autumn 2017 Economic Forecast
The euro area economy is on track to grow at its fastest pace in a decade this year, with real GDP growth forecast at 2.2%.
Spring 2017 Economic Forecast
Published on 11 May 2017 and covering the period to the end of 2018.Download the report, access the data source and see key predictions.
Winter 2017 Economic Forecast
Having proven resilient to global challenges last year, the European economic recovery is expected to continue this year and next: for the first time in...
Autumn 2016 Economic Forecast
Commission forecasts 2017 euro area growth of 1.5% and EU growth of 1.6% hindrances to growth and the weakening of supportive factors. This page groups all documents and media related to the Autumn 2016 economic forecast, as well as a video summarising the main findings.
Spring 2016 Economic Forecast
Commission forecasts euro area growth of 1.6% and EU growth of 1.8% in 2016. Economic growth in Europe is expected to remain modest as key trading partners' performance has slowed and some of the so far supportive factors start to wane. This page groups all documents and media related to the...
Winter 2016 Economic Forecast
The European economy is now entering its fourth year of recovery and growth continues at a moderate rate, driven mainly by consumption. At the same time, much of the world economy is grappling with major challenges and risks to European growth are therefore increasing. This page groups all...
Autumn 2015 economic forecast
The economic recovery in the euro area and the European Union as a whole is now in its third year. It should continue at a modest pace next year despite more challenging conditions in the global economy. This page groups all documents and media related to the Autumn 2015 economic forecast.
About the economic forecasts
Information on the methodology and coverage of the economic forecasts published in this section.