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Economy and Finance

Economic forecast for Slovenia

The latest macroeconomic forecast for Slovenia. 

Slovenia’s economy grew by 0.8% q-o-q in the first quarter of 2022, faster than expected in the Spring Forecast. Together with a vigorous growth in the last quarter of 2021, this implies a strong carry-over effect for 2022 as a whole. Based on confidence and employment indicators and early data on industrial production, growth continued also in the second quarter although with signs of softening in some sectors. Overall, the expansion in the first half of the year is expected to have been driven by private consumption and investment but exports trailed behind import growth.

Last update : Summer 2022 Economic Forecast (14/07/2022)

Indicators2020202120222023
GDP growth (%, yoy)-4,28,15,41,0
Inflation (%, yoy)-0,32,07,64,9

The impact of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, increasing consumer prices and production costs, tighter financial conditions, lower expected demand in foreign markets and disruptions in supply chains are only slowly impacting incoming data, with the exception of consumer confidence, which has decreased significantly. These factors are set to gradually weigh on growth in the second half of 2022 and in 2023. On an annual basis, real GDP growth is forecast at 5.4% in 2022 and 1.0% in 2023. Private consumption has so far been supported by high employment, increases in salaries and by the use of accumulated savings from the previous periods. However, it is expected that consumption growth will slow down on the back of persistent inflation and lower real wages during the rest of the year and in 2023. Investment growth, which was still strong in the first quarter, is also forecast to decelerate in the second half of the year due to the increasing uncertainty, lower expected foreign demand, higher financing costs and prices of investment goods and construction materials. Public investment continues to be supported by the implementation of the RRP. Export growth is also expected to soften due to weak external demand.

Inflation has accelerated at the beginning of the year, driven by food and energy price increases and their pass-through to other goods and services. Inflationis projected to reach 7.6 % in 2022. Under the assumption of declining energy and food prices, inflation is expected to decrease to 4.9% in 2023.