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Economy and Finance

Economic forecast for Slovenia

The latest macroeconomic forecast for Slovenia. 

Slovenia’s GDP is projected to have expanded by 5.1% in 2022, mainly supported by the strong carry-over from 2021. Over the first three quarters of 2022, private consumption continued to increase and investments proved robust. Imports increased significantly faster than exports, leading to a negative contribution from net exports. In the third quarter, the economy contracted quite strongly. Slowly improving economic sentiment over the last months suggests that this trend could be partly reversed in the final quarter of the year. Employment has remained strong and the industrial production indicator also improved.

GDP growth (%, yoy)5,11,02,0
Inflation (%, yoy)9,36,13,5

Continuing global economic uncertainty and the tightening of financial conditions are expected to limit growth in the beginning of 2023. However, as employment remains high and wage growth is set to be robust, growth is projected to improve as from the second half of 2023. While private consumption is expected to grow only modestly after its rapid increase in 2022, investment is forecast to continue growing, partly sustained by RRF-supported public investments. Public consumption is set to grow faster than in 2022 fuelled by increases in public wages. Exports growth is projected to accelerate in 2023, but net exports are set to remain negative due to strong imports. Overall, GDP is forecast to grow by 1.0% in 2023 and 2.0% in 2024.

Inflation in the final quarter of 2022 was slightly lower than in the third quarter. However, energy inflation was the only component that decreased, with the prices of industrial goods, food and services increasing faster than before. Overall, inflation averaged 9.3% in 2022. With global energy prices easing and growth remaining weak, headline inflation is projected to decrease to 6.1% in 2023. In 2024, inflation is forecast to fall further to 3.5% on the back of assumed economic growth and moderation of energy prices. Core inflation is expected to remain elevated on account of more generalised price and wage growth.